TTCM () > WeatherTuesday, January 26, 2021
Washington DC Climate ReportDCwxWeatherSunrise: 7:19; Solar Noon: 12:21; Sunset: 5:23

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Last 72 Hours: ObservationsCurrently: 37°F  — USNO Clear Sky ChartHeavens-Above

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...THE WASHINGTON NATIONAL DC CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 25 2021...

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         39   4:06 PM  75    1950  44     -5       52
  MINIMUM         32  11:59 PM   3    1935  29      3       41
  AVERAGE         36                        36      0       47

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.18          1.66 1978   0.09   0.09     1.23
  MONTH TO DATE    1.47                      2.26  -0.79     2.78
  SINCE DEC 1      6.43                      5.31   1.12     6.06
  SINCE JAN 1      1.47                      2.26  -0.79     2.78

Observations Archive

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Winter Weather Advisory

Today: Freezing rain before 8am, then rain likely. High near 39°. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

Tonight: A slight chance of rain before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34°. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47°. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28°. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of snow before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 37°. Northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 22°.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 35°.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20°.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36°.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39°. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32°. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42°. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass through the area today. High pressure
will briefly return Wednesday. An upper level disturbance is
expected to pass through the area Thursday morning while low
pressure develops well southeast of the area. High pressure will
return briefly Friday and Saturday before another storm system
approaches for late in the weekend into early next week.


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A band of rain is currently moving through southern Virginia
and parts of central Virginia this morning as a surface low
slowly approaches from the Tennessee River Valley. The northern
edge of this band is affecting our far southern counties in the
central Virginia where temperatures are currently hovering near
freezing. On and off freezing rain and drizzle is being reported
at the CHO ASOS which indicates that the SFC freezing layer is
still holding strong all the way down into central Virginia. I
used current temps and compared the obs to the 00Z model
guidance to determine which models are handling the wedge of
cold air. I found that the major global models are all
indicating that the cold air wedge should remain in place
through the early parts of this morning for most areas north of
I-64 in central Virginia. I used a combination of the NAM/GFS
and NAMNest to populate temps for the next 12 hours. The cooler
temps along with the warm layer aloft has led me to keep
freezing rain through 12Z this morning for most areas down to
I-64.

A dry slot is working its way further north into northern
Virginia and central and northern Maryland early this morning.
Parts of our region is alternating between freezing rain and
drizzle which should continue to be the case through middle
parts of this morning. Models the past few days had been
indicating a heavier band of precipitation moving further north
into our region but monitoring current radar trends suggest that
heaviest precip should be focused further south over central
Virginia but I expect light freezing rain to fill in further
north for a period later this morning. I have kept our current
ice totals but the snow amounts have been updated and I can`t
rule out some lingering snow/sleet/freezing rain mix along the
Mason Dixon line through the middle parts of this weekend.

Warmer air should start to build north during the later parts
of this morning and into this afternoon. There remains some
uncertainty on how quickly the warm air will build northward.
Precipitation should shift further north later this morning over
northern and central Maryland. Areas along the Mason Dixon will
likely experience periods of wintry mix as temperatures will
continue to hover near freezing. By this afternoon, temperatures
should rise above freezing and any lingering precipitation
should transition full over to rain. The surface low will pull
off the eastern sea board this evening. Dry conditions expected
for most of our region this evening and into early Wednesday
with some upslope snow showers possible along the Allegheny
Front.


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds to the north over the Great Lakes region
and eastern Canada on Wednesday. A weak eastern flow will become
light out of the northwest which will allow for the broken
cloud deck to linger into Wednesday. Dry conditions expected
with Afternoon temperatures warming into the 40s and the lower
50s. An upper trough over the plains will drive a surface low
pressure system eastward into the southeastern US on Wednesday.
Models have trended southward with this system which has
decreased the threat for snow to our region late Wednesday into
early Thursday.I have kept the highest pops down in central
Virginia and have at least slight chance pops everywhere by 12Z
Thursday. If precipitation does move northward into our region,
the precipitation will likely fall as a rain/snow mix to start
and then transition over to all snow Thursday morning. The Euro
does try to bring in some snow showers Thursday morning to all
of our region as the low pressure pulls northeastward off the
eastern seaboard but it is the outlier against the NAM and GFS.

The high pressure off to the northeast will build into our
region behind the exiting cold front on Thursday. Dry and clear
conditions are expected with winds become northwesterly.
Depending on the track of the low, strong gusts of 25 to 30
knots will be possible for the eastern half of our forecast area
with the strongest winds focused over southern Maryland.
Daytime temperatures will be much cooler in the mid to upper 30s
due to strong cold air advection. Thursday overnight lows will
be chilly in the teens and lower 20s.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Reinforcing shot of cold air will cross the region Friday as a
trough passes to the north. Wouldn`t rule out a few flurries or
a snow shower with it, but mostly dry and brisk conditions
expected. Highs in the 30s will help Friday rank as one of the
coldest so far in this otherwise mild winter.

High pressure will nose southward over the region for Friday
night through Saturday night with a cold but dry air mass and
lessening winds. Radiational cooling should allow at least
Friday night to drop near, or colder than, the coldest night so
far this winter, but that`s not saying much given how little
true cold we have seen. Lows may be in the teens across much of
the area, with highs Saturday in the 30s once again. Depending
on cloud cover, Saturday night could be similarly cold to Friday
night, though increasing clouds ahead of an approaching storm
could keep it a bit milder.

Models continue to indicate a storm system approaching from the
south-central US will move across the region in pieces Sunday
into Monday. With cold air looking more plentiful at the start
than it did last night, we may have a better chance at a
widespread snowfall. Ensemble probabilities have definitely
become snowier for Sunday, but its still 5 days out. That said,
given our very limited winter weather last winter and so far
this winter, anything more than an inch or two could become the
snowiest storm since 2019 for much of our area.


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