TTCM () > WeatherFriday, August 14, 2020
Washington DC Climate ReportDCwxWeatherSunrise: 6:22; Solar Noon: 1:13; Sunset: 8:04

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Last 72 Hours: ObservationsCurrently: 84°F  — USNO Clear Sky ChartHeavens-Above

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...THE WASHINGTON NATIONAL DC CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 13 2020...

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         84   3:50 PM 101    1881  87     -3       85
                                      2016
  MINIMUM         74   9:42 AM  55    1902  70      4       77
                                      1930
  AVERAGE         79                        79      0       81

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            0.59          1.73 1896   0.09   0.50     0.12
  MONTH TO DATE    4.78                      1.31   3.47     1.02
  SINCE JUN 1     14.80                      8.82   5.98    11.78
  SINCE JAN 1     31.90                     24.78   7.12    29.81

Observations Archive

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a chance of showers between 9am and noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 85°. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70°. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82°. Northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 9pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9pm and 3am, then showers likely after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 70°. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. High near 80°. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and 3am. Low around 67°. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84°.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 66°.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 85°.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67°.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface front will meander over the region through the
weekend, bringing showers and thunderstorms each day. Low
pressure will develop on this front and move across the region
Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will then briefly
return early next week before an unsettled pattern likely
returns by the middle of the week.


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Seeing several showers that have developed over central VA and
along the Chesapeake Bay. This is associated with onshore flow
north of a deepening surface low along the NC coast. These are
progressive enough that flooding is not a concern at this point
with this shower activity.

Elsewhere across the area, mostly cloudy skies have prevailed,
and will continue to do so through daybreak. Some patchy fog
seems to be trying to develop in a few spots, but visibilities
aren`t dropping all that much. Thinking the cloud cover will
keep fog coverage fairly low as we head into sunrise.

For the rest of today, a frontal boundary to our north will drop
south through the area today. Meanwhile, a slow moving upper low
will be approaching from the west. This will lead to more
showers and storms today, especially into the afternoon hours.
Hi-res guidance doesn`t paint an ominous picture today, with QPF
amounts much lighter than in previous days on the 00z HREF.
Additionally, any showers/storms should be relatively
progressive (as we are seeing this morning). Of course, given
the antecedent conditions across a majority of the area, will
have to watch for any heavier elements that may try to train
along the front itself. However, with the front actually moving
today, think this will be harder to do.

A brief lull in activity is possible overnight tonight for much
of the area, though do expect lingering showers overnight in
central VA and eastern WV. Overnight lows into the upper 60s/low
70s (upper 50s to low 60s in the higher elevations).


.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, the slow-moving upper trough over the Ohio Valley
will finally swing through the region. Additionally, at the
surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary will remain over
central VA. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop east of the
upper trough and latch onto this front. This will result in low
pressure moving just to the south of the region later Saturday
into early Sunday. The track may move right over some of our
southern zones. Onshore flow associated with this system could
lead to locally enhanced rainfall along the ridges and in the
Potomac Highlands. Guidance then takes the low across southern
MD into the Delmarva overnight, while also gradually
strengthening it. Rainfall amounts could also be locally be
enhanced from central Virginia to southern Maryland, where
they`ll stand the best chance of destabilizing and developing
some convective elements. With the continued clouds and storms,
highs will continue to be in the 80s. Lows will be in the 60s
to 70s.

All this being said, looking at a potential for flooding
Saturday/Saturday night. Current forecast shows 2-3 inches of
rain with this system across central VA and into southern MD.
Some locally higher amounts are likely with convective elements
and upslope flow. Given the recent heavy rains, it isn`t going
to take much to cause more flooding issues.

By Sunday morning, the low should be pushing off to the east,
taking the rain with it. Some guidance is a little slower
however, so leaving some POPs in through the early afternoon.
Though, do think there is a good shot we are dry by early
afternoon. Sunday will be much cooler than normal, with highs in
the mid to upper 70s (low 80s closer to the water). Just hope we
can get the rain out of here early enough to enjoy it. Sunday
night will be dry, with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the
higher elevations to upper 60s in the typical normal areas along
the waters.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Troughiness will dominate the East Coast states the first half of
next week keeping temps aob normal. There will be drying for the
first part of the week as NW flow develops in the wake of low
pressure organizing offshore. By the middle of the week, moisture
begins to increase as sfc high moves offshore and srly flow
develops. However, moisture supply is not expected to be anywhere
close to the past few days, so the risk of excessive rainfall
appears low at this time. Ridging tries to build along the East
Coast for the second half of next week likely limiting areal
coverage of showers and t-storms.


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