TM () > WX — Friday, April 3, 2020
DC Climate ReportDCwxWeatherSunrise: 6:49; Solar Noon: 1:11; Sunset: 7:34

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Last 72 Hours: ObservationsCurrently: 50°F  — USNO Clear Sky Chart

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Forecast updates at 6 AM ET

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°. Breezy, with a northwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 42°. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°. Northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45°. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62°. Calm wind.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46°.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 68°.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50°.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73°.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 73°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 73°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 030055
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
855 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will loop offshore of the eastern US coast through
Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the Midwest
over the weekend. A cold front will push through Sunday night,
then stall nearby before returning north as a warm front next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A large and deep area of low pressure will continue retrograde
west toward the New England Coast tonight while high pressure
remains over the Midwest and Great Lakes. A strong gradient
between these systems will continue to bring blustery northwest
winds for most areas tonight, but it will not be as windy as
today due to less mixing. A strengthening low-level jet may
cause winds to approach advisory criteria (greater than 46 mph)
along the highest ridges, but still do not feel confident on
coverage for any sort of advisory at this time. Elsewhere,
northwest winds will gust around 20 to 30 mph (but lighter in
the central Shenandoah Valley).

Skies should remain mostly clear through the night, but the
winds will help keep temperatures well above the dew points, so
only expecting lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s for most areas.
Wind chills will be near or below the freezing mark though.
Winds will be lighter over the central Shenandoah Valley. Some
frost is possible, but confidence for an advisory is too low at
this time due to the stronger gradient keeping at least a light
wind for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the low continues its loop southward on Friday, the pressure
gradient will remain tight. Gusty winds of at least 20-30 mph
are likely through the day. Moisture associated with the low
will also begin advecting back toward the area, so expect clouds
to increase from northeast to southwest through Friday night
(although the far southwestern CWA may remain clear). A few
light showers may also approach north central Maryland Friday
and Friday night, though most guidance indicates they will be
dissipating as they encounter a drier low level airmass.
Temperatures should remain fairly steady state with highs in the
50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s.

The low will finally begin to move back out to sea later Friday
night into Saturday as upper level blocking breaks down. This
will finally allow high pressure to move in from the west and
winds to relax. However, some clouds could hang around until
Saturday afternoon as linger moisture remains under a subsidence
inversion. Clouds will then increase again Saturday night as a
weak frontal system approaches from the west. As heights build
aloft, temperatures will be a little warmer, with most places in
the 60s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday should be mostly dry, with a surface ridge axis overhead for
much of the day. However, a weakening cold front will push through
the region later Sunday into Sunday evening. This front is likely to
be mostly dry, but can`t rule out a shower as it pushes through, so
will maintain the slight chance POPs for that for western zones,
with little to no POPs east of the Blue Ridge. Highs Sunday will be
in the upper 60s to near 70.

By Monday, High pressure will be split to the north and south, with
the weak frontal boundary placed somewhere in, or south, of the
forecast area. Could see some showers along that boundary Monday
afternoon. Not expecting much of a thermal boundary there, but
likely more a wind shift. Temperatures expected to be in the mid
70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday are a bit tricky to make any exact time
estimates on any rainfall that may occur. The region will be in
northwesterly flow aloft, with several weak upper-level disturbances
moving over/near the forecast area. So, generally throwing in chance
POPs into the forecast for both days with highs in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main story through Friday will be gusty northwest winds.
Gusts may subside a little tonight (15-25kt), but frequent gusts
of 20 to 30 knots are expected for Friday. A stratocumulus deck
will advect in from the northeast Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning. These clouds will likely be VFR, though there
is a low chance of MVFR. High pressure will bring lighter winds
by Friday night, as well as maintain VFR conditions into
Saturday night.

A weakening cold front will push through Sunday afternoon, with a
slight chance for showers west of the Blue Ridge, so MRB could
perhaps see a shower with this, but the front should primarily be
dry. Then on Monday afternoon/evening, more showers possible across
central VA as this weak front gets hung up. However, rain chances
remain low, and any CIG/VSBY restrictions would be minimal. So,
generally VFR conditions expected Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will remain gusty through Friday. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters during this time.
Winds may approach Gale-force criteria over the middle portion
of the Bay overnight, but for now have limited to 30 kt.

Winds will gradually diminish Friday night into Saturday
morning. An SCA is in effect for all of the waters Friday
evening, and the middle portion of the Bay/lower Tidal Potomac
river overnight. After that time, high pressure will bring
lighter winds for the weekend.

No marine hazards are expected on Sunday or Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to decrease under northwest winds and will
be near or below astronomical normals by tonight-Friday. Tides
may increase rather sharply by Saturday as onshore flow returns.
The amount of increase will depend on if there is any excess
anomaly left at the mouth of the Bay. Have sided with the less
aggressive ESTOFS at this time, though fairly widespread minor
flooding is within the realm of possibility this weekend, and
moderate flooding at sensitive sites would be the worst-case
scenario.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/CJL
MARINE...BJL/ADS/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL/ADS


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