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Friday,
November 22, 2019
DC Climate Report
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DCwx
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Weather
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Sunrise: 6:58;
Solar Noon: 11:54;
Sunset: 4:50
Last 72 Hours: Observations
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Currently: 51°F
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Today: Showers, mainly between 10am and 2pm. High near 54°. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 32°. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light after midnight.
Saturday: Rain likely after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 45°. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: Rain. Low around 40°. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Sunday: Rain likely before 8am, then a slight chance of showers between 8am and 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 51°. Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35°.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 53°.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37°.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58°.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45°.
Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 39°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52°.
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FXUS61 KLWX 220843
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
343 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today. Low pressure will
develop over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and track
northeastward across the Mid- Atlantic through early Sunday.
High pressure is expected to return later Sunday into early next
week. Another area of low pressure and its associated cold
front may approach from the west during the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest surface analysis suggests cold front near Toronto-Cincinnati.
A few stray/light radar echoes traversing the Mid Atlantic early
this morning, but with dry air below 5000 ft (and most cloud bases
closer to 8000-10,000 ft), doubt anything is reaching the ground.
Frontal passage will occur during the midday hours, accompanied by a
several hour period of showers. Cold advection will rapidly ensue
behind front. Believe that most of the moisture will depart first.
would not rule out a few snowflakes at the end in the mountains, but
do not believe the risk warrants a database mention. Similarly, it
is possible that moist layer will be too shallow to support
measurable hydrometeors, but its a minimal possibility...and will
omit from forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the forecast area tonight, and move
offshore Saturday morning. Dry weather will prevail through this
time. Have shaded tonight`s lows a touch cooler owing the the
radiational component.
By Saturday morning, low pressure will be in the Tennessee Valley
ejecting north ahead of a digging trough axis. Guidance has trended
slightly later with onset timing of associated precip...closer to
late morning central Shenandoah Valley/foothills and afternoon
elsewhere. With that in mind, although there still may be a cool
wedge in place it should primarily be an above freezing wedge. Aside
from the first few hours Saturday morning (in the aforementioned
portion of central Virginia) am forecasting a widespread rain. Will
need to monitor a shallow elevated layer though with may be
isothermal near freezing that could result in a slice of mountain
freezing rain.
On the back side of the low, cold air will return producing a brief
period of upslope snow showers. Accumulations should be minimal, and
have made no adjustments from the previous forecast.
High pressure will return Sunday but with breezy conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We`ll start the work week off with zonal flow aloft. Sunny skies and
light winds are in the forecast, with high temperatures in the low
50s. High pressure will strengthen to our south and east on Tuesday,
while a shortwave trough works its way through the center of the
country. Sunny skies are expected locally, with light southerly
winds and highs in the mid-upper 50s.
The aforementioned shortwave and its associated surface low will
track from the central Mississippi Valley toward the southern Great
Lakes and eventually into the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday Night
through Wednesday. As the low tracks to our north, it will drag a
cold front through our area during the day on Wednesday. A few
passing showers may be possible in advance of the front Tuesday
Night or Wednesday, but by and large condtions should remain dry as
the strongest mid-upper level forcing for ascent in advance of the
shortwave will pass well to our north. In the wake of the cold
front, gusty northwesterly winds will be possible Wednesday
afternoon. High pressure will build to our north over the Great
Lakes on Thursday, leading to seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceiling mostly at mid deck for the start of the morning push,
although lower clouds (around 4500-5000 ft) lurk to the west of the
hubs at MRB. Bases will lower this morning as a cold front
approaches. Will keep a VFR forecast during fropa, although
restrictions possible (most likely MVFR) in a "worst case" scenario.
Clouds will lift tonight, continuing into Saturday morning. Another
storm system will impact the area Saturday afternoon though the
night, again with flight restrictions possible in low cloud and
rain.
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have generally subsided in the early morning, due mainly to
poor mixing. Still have some 15-20 kt gusts from the mouth of the
Potomac to Tangier Sound. While mixing may improve after sunrise,
effects from insolation will be offset by a passing cold front. Have
restructured Small Craft Advisory to Sandy Point south including the
mouth of the Potomac. Behind the front, there should be a period of
deeper mixing in cold advection before sunset/building high
pressure. Have preserved SCA for all waters mid afternoon-midnight,
continuing overnight for lower tidal Potomac/Drum Point-Smith
Point/Tangier Sound.
Another are of low pressure will cross the waters Saturday afternoon-
evening, with deep mixing once again in the wake of this system.
Small Craft Advisories likely Sunday.
Sub SCA level winds are expected on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels on the Bay rapidly increased overnight, with several
sites well into Action Stage/almost minor flood. Higher than normal
tides may continue this morning before gradually subsiding. Do not
expect any inundation, but the AM cycle will be close once again at
sensitive locations.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EST
tonight for ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ534-537-
543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ532-533-
540-541.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...HTS/KJP
MARINE...HTS/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
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