April 22, 2019
DC Climate Report
Last 72 Hours: Observations
Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 72°. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 55°. Northwest wind 3 to 8 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 82°. Light and variable wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63°. South wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 76°. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers before 9pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 54°. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73°.
Thursday Night: A chance of showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night: A chance of showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52°. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 69°.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52°.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74°.
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FXUS61 KLWX 220726
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019
High pressure will build over the southeastern United States
through Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the Ohio
Valley Tuesday night, stall just south of the region Wednesday,
then return north as a warm front Thursday as low pressure
tracks from the Ohio Valley toward the northeastern United
States. A cold front will follow Friday, then high pressure will
build in from the Great Lakes to start the weekend. Another
frontal system may approach the region during the second half of
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered to broken clouds will likely linger near and east of
the Blue Ridge for the first part of the day in northeast flow
around low pressure to our east. At this point, it appears the
low and its associated forcing will be far enough east to keep
rain chances at a minimum, with perhaps a few sprinkles or a
shower right near the Chesapeake Bay. Temperatures should be
a few degrees warmer than yesterday, especially across the
Shenandoah Valley into central Virginia where more abundant
sunshine is expected (and 850-925 hPa temps are higher).
Conditions are expected to clear further this evening and
overnight as high pressure builds to the south. Low temperatures
should be right around normal for late April, generally in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Southwesterly return flow should push temperatures to near or
above 80 for much of the area Tuesday afternoon, despite
increasing clouds later in the day ahead of the next approaching
A deepening mid-level shortwave is expected to pivot east from
the northern Great Lakes into New England Tuesday into Wednesday.
Its surface reflection (cold front) will cross the Ohio Valley,
and approach the Allegheny Front Tuesday night. Showers and a
couple thunderstorms may make it into parts of western Maryland
and eastern West Virginia before losing their organization in
the evening due to the loss of daytime heating. Showers likely
becomes more scattered along the front as it drops into northern
and western Virginia and the remainder of northern and central
Maryland overnight, then dissipate by daybreak as the better
upper support departs across New England.
Most guidance has been pretty consistent stalling the front
along the I-64 corridor Wednesday, along which a few showers may
re-develop during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. There`s not
much in the way of upper support or dynamics, though, and deep-
layer westerly flow should keep convergence/CAPE lower. So any
precipitation should remain scattered.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak, stalled front makes a return north as a warm front Thursday.
However, upper support not that great, though improving as a
deep southern stream shortwave advances. Hardly a washout, but
enough to justify chance PoPs, especially by Thursday night. As
the trough axis (and surface cold front) crosses the area
Friday chance PoPs will continue, although model evolution of
this feature contains quite a bit of spread. Depending upon how
this transpires, a thunderstorm would be possible.
The weekend looks drier as high pressure builds over the eastern
United States. But, in progressive flow, another cold front could be
lurking by the end of Sunday.
With largely flat 500 mb flow (except for the trough axis Thursday
night), there are no real opportunities for atypical warmth or
cooldowns. Forecast temperatures, especially highs, will be close to
average. Lows Saturday and Sunday morning will reflect the
anticipated drier airmass.
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM guidance suggesting perhaps brief MVFR CIGs first thing
this morning from IAD and DCA northeastward toward BWI and MTN.
Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through Wednesday. A few showers
are possible Tuesday evening and overnight, but restrictions
should be limited and brief at best (highest chance of sub-VFR
near MRB during this time). NW flow around 10 kts with a few
gusts around 20 kts today will diminish and turn SW tonight.
Winds may increase a touch ahead of a cold front Tuesday, then
turn NW again Tuesday night into Wednesday.
VFR should prevail for a majority of the time through the end of the
week. However, flight restrictions will be possible in scattered
showers and maybe a thunderstorm.
SCA through this morning in NW flow. Winds gradually diminish
through the day as gradient relaxes between high pressure
building to the south and low pressure departing toward southern
New England. SW flow increases late Tuesday into Tuesday night
ahead of a cold front approaching from the Ohio Valley, and may
warrant the issuance of another SCA for portions of the waters.
Winds should become lighter again Wednesday from the northwest.
The pressure gradient will be light Thursday into Friday.
However, the flow will increase Friday PM behind a cold front.
Anomalies should decrease today, but then may trend up a bit
tonight into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Minor
flooding is not currently forecast, but Annapolis/DC SW
Waterfront and Straits Point could exceed caution stage tonight.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ535-
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