TM () > TW — Tuesday, June 25, 2019

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Forecast updates at 6 AM ET

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 89°. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74°. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 91°. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71°. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 92°. West wind 3 to 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73°.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 93°.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73°.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 93°.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74°.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89°. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 250028
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
828 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will cross the Mid-Atlantic through tonight.
High pressure will build from the Tennessee Valley toward the
region through the end of the week. A cold front may approach
from Pennsylvania this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Latest analysis shows an upper-level ridge sliding off to our
east this evening and surface trough moving into the area from
the west. There is also shortwave energy behind the departing
upper-level ridge, and weak forcing is noted in the lower and
mid-levels above the surface trough. This activity will pass
through our region from west to east tonight.

Shear magnitude thanks to strengthening low-level jet increases
this evening ahead of an approaching shortwave and surface
trough. This convective system is most likely to affect areas
near and west of Interstate 81 this evening, when instability
will still be maximized a bit from daytime heating. Locally
gusty winds and hail are possible in the storms as this system
moves through the area during this time.

As this system progresses farther east toward the Blue Ridge
and metro areas late this evening into the overnight, the loss
of instability from daytime heating will be more noticeable.
Therefore, the activity should weaken to showers and just
perhaps a couple isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal system pushes east and falls apart Tuesday. No real
appreciable rain chances and since the front will be falling
apart, there`s no real airmass change. If anything, Tuesday will
be even hotter given less cloud cover and downsloping westerly
flow (though humidity may be a little lower).

A weak front may touch off a pop up shower or thunderstorm later
Wednesday afternoon and evening, but with rising heights and
weak forcing anything should be very isolated at best.
Otherwise, hot and humid weather continues with heat indices
95-100 for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-upper level ridge will reach its maximum amplitude over our CWA
Thu and Fri keeping convection suppressed. Highs will be in the
mid 90s possibly reaching the upper 90s to near 100 as
indicated in the 95th percentile by various global models.
Despite the hot temperatures, heat indices appear will remain
below the threshold of 105/100F east/west of the Blue Ridge
respectively for Heat Advisories.

Heights begin to fall Saturday as closed upper level low drops from
Hudson Bay to northern New England. Its associated cold front is
fcst to cross the area Sunday and bring a slight reprieve from the
heat along a small risk of showers and t-storms. Ridge builds again
during the first few days of July with temperatures rising again
into the middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR restrictions possible in any heavy shower or thunderstorm
activity until around midnight. Most likely to affect CHO/MRB
late this evening. Patchy fog possible mainly near outlying
terminals late tonight, but not confident enough in restrictions
to put in TAF attm. Gusty winds possible near storms mainly W
of I-81 this eve.

Mainly VFR Tuesday through Saturday in W or SW flow.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for mid Chesapeake Bay waters and lower tidal Potomac River
through tonight for marginal southerly channeling. Gusts may
extend further north to near the Bay Bridge tonight, but not
high enough probability for a headline just yet. Could also be a
few near 20 kt W/NW gusts behind a departing frontal system
Tuesday morning.

Generally light flow and dry but very warm weather anticipated
Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides running half to one foot above normal, approaching but
likely not to exceed minor flood stage through Tuesday morning.
Highest anomalies are expected this evening, but this is
coincident with the lower of two daily high tide cycles.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...BJL/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BJL/LFR/DHOF
MARINE...BJL/LFR/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

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